266
ACUS03 KWNS 201911
SWODY3
SPC AC 201911
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0211 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FROM LARGE HAIL, ARE POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN/NEAR THE OZARK PLATEAU.
..MO/OK/KS/AR
NO CHANGE TO THE PRIOR OUTLOOK OF LEVEL 1-MRGL RISK. ELEVATED SEVERE
HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE AREA OF LEVEL 2-SLGT IN A FUTURE OUTLOOK.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESSING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL STATES WILL YIELD MODIFIED
MOISTURE RECOVERY FROM THE WESTERN GULF, BENEATH AN INCREASINGLY
EXPANSIVE/STOUT EML. THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING DEPICTED IN SOME
MODELS IS QUESTIONABLE OWING TO PREDOMINATELY 20S/30S SURFACE DEW
POINTS AT PRESENT ALONG THE TX GULF COAST. ELEVATED BUOYANCY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WEAK WITH MUCAPE AT/BELOW 1000 J/KG. BUT STRENGTHENING
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU, INCREASING IN COVERAGE
DURING THE NIGHT.
WITHIN A PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY MID TO UPPER WIND PROFILE, GIVEN THE
GEOMETRY OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH, FAVORABLE
SPEED SHEAR SHOULD EXIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS. THE
POTENTIALLY LIMITED BUOYANCY AND PERHAPS A MORE WIDESPREAD
CLUSTER-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE MAY MODULATE THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF BEYOND THE OZARKS
GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE EML AND NEUTRAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
CHANGE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.
..GRAMS.. 03/20/2025
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