519
FNUS22 KWNS 201944
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2025
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
..NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
A CRITICAL AREA WAS INTRODUCED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS WITH THE
UPDATE TO THE D2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK. ALONG AND BEHIND THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, STRONG SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. WHILE SOME MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS
THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD. AN AREA OF OVERLAP OF SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 15-20
PERCENT WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
AMID FUELS THAT ARE VERY DRY AND RECEPTIVE TO FIRE SPREAD.
..SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
LIGHTER WINDS ARE PROGGED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 20 PERCENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY BRINGING
ONSHORE FLOW AND IMPROVING RELATIVE HUMIDITY. SEVERAL LARGE FIRES
ARE ONGOING ACROSS THIS AREA ON D1 - THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE BROADER ELEVATED AREAS. SEE
PREVIOUS OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION.
..THORNTON/WILLIAMS.. 03/20/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0112 AM CDT THU MAR 20 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
PARTS OF THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY,
REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, A TRAILING
SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL MIGRATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH INTO THE 15-25 MPH RANGE ACROSS A BROAD SWATH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. A DRY RETURN FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL
TX/OK AND INTO KS/MO AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHILE AN INFLUX OF DRY
POST-FRONTAL AIR WILL PROMOTE RH VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS NE, KS,
CO, AND NM.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY
THE RECENT FRONTAL INTRUSION INTO THE GULF HAS SHUNTED ANY
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE WITH LOW 30 DEWPOINTS NOTED ALONG
THE TX GULF COAST AS OF 05 UTC. MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, AND GUIDANCE THAT TYPICALLY OVER-MIXES THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL LIKELY BETTER CAPTURE RH TRENDS WITHIN THE DRY
RETURN FLOW REGIME. AS SUCH, THE CURRENT FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON
RAP/HRRR SOLUTIONS THAT DEPICT WIDESPREAD 15-20 MPH WINDS AND 20-25%
RH MINIMUMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INCLUDING INTO NORTHEAST AR AND MO
WHERE ACTIVE FIRES WERE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO SUPPORT THESE SOLUTIONS WITH 50-70% PROBABILITIES FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH ACROSS THIS REGION.
..HIGH PLAINS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING SHOULD YIELD THE
DRIEST CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES IN THE 15-25% RANGE AND WIDESPREAD
WIND SPEED BETWEEN 15-25 MPH. ALTHOUGH CONTINUOUS ELEVATED WIND/RH
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, THE RISK AREA IS BIFURCATED ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN CO AND KS WHERE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN/SNOW HAS FALLEN OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. FUEL TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS THESE REGIONS,
AND AN EXPANSION OF THE RISK AREA(S) MAY BE NEEDED AS SNOW MELTS AND
GRASSES DRY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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