044
ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KANSAS AND INTO MUCH OF MISSOURI...
..SUMMARY
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND ADJACENT EASTERN
KANSAS.
..SYNOPSIS
WEAKLY CYCLONIC/FAST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE U.S. AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD, WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE OHIO
VALLEY, AND A SECOND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN STATES. WITH TIME, THE
EASTERN OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SHIFT INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE
CROSS THE NORTHEAST, BUT LACK OF BUOYANCY WILL PREVAIL. A FEW
LIGHTNING FLASHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, BUT AT THIS TIME, COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN BELOW 10%
MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH
THE DAY, AND INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN TANDEM, A DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED/ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MISSOURI
VICINITY OVERNIGHT, AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
..EASTERN KANSAS INTO MISSOURI
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO/ACROSS THE PLAINS, A STRONG SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
VICINITY. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY SOUTHWESTERLY BRANCH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA/MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
LEAD TO SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION TO ALLOW SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT, WITH GREATEST CAPE EXPECTED FROM NORTHEASTERN KANSAS
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. GIVEN FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW YIELDING AMPLE SHEAR FOR
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION, A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.
..GOSS.. 03/21/2025
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