648
ACUS03 KWNS 211905
SWODY3
SPC AC 211904
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..SUMMARY
AFTERNOON STORMS FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL, THOUGH
A TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AS A
SURFACE CYCLONE DRIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS ON
SUNDAY. RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITH THE AID OF A DEPARTING LOW-LEVEL
JET, PROMOTING ENOUGH BUOYANCY AMID A SHEARED AIRMASS TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
..LOWER MS VALLEY
AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S F AMID LOW TO MID 60S F
DEWPOINTS. AN EML IS POISED TO OVERSPREAD THIS WARM/MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS, BOOSTING MLCAPE TO 2000 J/KG IN SPOTS, BUT ALSO INTRODUCING
SOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WITHIN THE 850-700 MB LAYER. SINCE
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WITH TIME,
THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION WILL BE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. GIVEN 50 KTS OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, MULTICELLS, SUPERCELLS, AND SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS ARE THE EXPECTED MODES FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN
MATURE AND BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT LEAST SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS, ASSUMING THEY DO NOT BECOME IMMEDIATELY
UNDERCUT BY THE COLD FRONT.
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT LESS CERTAIN GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED
CONCERNS WITH INHIBITION AND AN UNDERCUTTING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
THE TRAILING/RESIDUAL PORTION OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN MS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
CONTRIBUTING TO SIZEABLE, CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. IF SURFACE
HEATING CAN OVERCOME INHIBITION TO SUPPORT ANY SUSTAINED, ROBUST
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS APPRECIABLY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SUPERCELLS
COULD DEVELOP WITH A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
..SQUITIERI.. 03/21/2025
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