319
FNUS22 KWNS 211929
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT FRI MAR 21 2025
VALID 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR UPPER TRANS-PECOS OF
TEXAS...PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS...AND SOUTHEASTERN AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...
..UPDATE
TWO ADDITIONAL ELEVATED AREAS OF FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR SATURDAY. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE
APPALACHIANS FROM NORTHERN GA INTO CENTRAL VA. SUSTAINED WESTERLY,
DOWN-SLOPE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH HERE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO
FALL INTO THE LOW 20S, WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS DROPPING WELL INTO
THE TEENS, JUXTAPOSED WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUEL CONDITIONS. MOST OF
THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FELL FURTHER EAST AND
NORTH, SO FIRE IGNITION AND SPREAD POTENTIAL REMAINS PRESENT HERE.
THE SECOND ELEVATED AREA WAS INCLUDED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF NORTH
CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE A DRIER LOCALIZED AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH. FURTHER SOUTH OF HERE, RH WILL LIKELY REMAIN TOO HIGH AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE ELEVATED AREAS, THE CRITICAL AREA ACROSS WEST TX
AND SOUTHEASTERN NM HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD TO COVER MUCH OF
EAST-CENTRAL NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. A MAJORITY OF THE
NWP MODELS, INCLUDING HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, ARE INDICATING HIGHER
WIND SPEEDS WILL DEVELOP HERE VIA THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE PANHANDLES OF OK AND TX
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FUELS ACROSS THIS REGION REMAIN HIGHLY RECEPTIVE
DUE TO A LACK OF RECENT PRECIPITATION.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE REMAINING ELEVATED AREAS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS PERTAINING TO THESE AREAS.
..BARNES/WILLIAMS.. 03/21/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0211 AM CDT FRI MAR 21 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL JET MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
PLAINS. A LEE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. STRONG
DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY, ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS, SUPPORTING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
NEAR THE STRONG LEE LOW, NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
ARE LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD, WY, CO AND NE AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND STRONG JET SHIFT SOUTHEAST. DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING
SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT RH VALUES BELOW 30% ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. WHILE AREA FUELS REMAIN OF MIXED RECEPTIVENESS, SOME
ANTECEDENT DRYING FRIDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS TO DEVELOP, GIVEN THE DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
..WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AS THE LEE TROUGH INTENSIFIES, WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW, AND THE SURFACE TROUGH, WILL AID IN BOLSTERING SURFACE WINDS
TO 15-25 MPH, WITH THE STRONG WINDS LIKELY ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS. WITH WARM DIURNAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND 80S, THE DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG DIURNAL MIXING WILL
FAVOR LOW AFTERNOON RH OF 10-20%. WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY,
SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS, GIVEN STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS AND LITTLE RECENT RAINFALL.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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