528
ACUS02 KWNS 220723
SWODY2
SPC AC 220721
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS
TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...
CORRECTED SYNOPSIS
..SUMMARY
AFTERNOON STORMS FROM WESTERN TENNESSEE SOUTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE WIND AND HAIL, AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AS A LEAD FEATURE EXITS NEW
ENGLAND.
AT THE SURFACE, AN OCCLUDING LOW -- INITIALLY OVER THE MINNESOTA
AREA, IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE OZARKS AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA, AND LATER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
..EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA
DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF A SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN MODEST DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AREA, AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL CAPE WESTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX INTO
TEXAS. WHILE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN, RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY
CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK WITH WESTWARD EXTENT, ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE ARKLATEX TO WESTERN TENNESSEE,
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ATOP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES AT LOW
LEVELS, SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS SUGGEST THAT
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE RISK SHOULD MAXIMIZE THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN TANDEM
WITH DIURNAL COOLING THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.
..GOSS.. 03/22/2025
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