449
ACUS01 KWNS 221956
SWODY1
SPC AC 221954
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI.
..20Z UPDATE
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, AND VERY MINIMAL CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE. THERE WAS SOME CONSIDERATION OF ADDING 15-PERCENT
WIND PROBABILITIES IN THE CURRENT SLIGHT RISK AREA, GIVEN ONGOING
DIURNAL HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID A DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE
WIND GUSTS APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME. FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS, SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
..WEINMAN.. 03/22/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1122 AM CDT SAT MAR 22 2025/
..MO/OK/KS/AR
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS CO. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY,
AND THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS MUCH OF
KS/MO/OK/AR, WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AIDING IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE. BY EARLY EVENING, MODELS SUGGEST A DEVELOPING
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FOCUS WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OK/NORTHWEST AR, LEADING TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD. MORNING CAM SOLUTIONS ARE SURPRISINGLY
CONSISTENT IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS ACTIVITY, WITH STORMS
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO THROUGH THE EVENING.
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT ELEVATED CAPE
SUPPORT A RISK OF HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING. GIVEN MODEL CONSISTENCY, HAVE INTRODUCED A SMALL SLGT RISK
AREA.
..NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST MT AND
EASTERN WY. STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER AND FAVORABLE
DIURNAL HEATING/MIXING MAY YIELD A FEW STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page