684
ACUS01 KWNS 230053
SWODY1
SPC AC 230051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2025
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
..SUMMARY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI.
..NORTHEAST OK INTO CENTRAL MO...SOUTHEAST KS
FAR NORTHWEST AR..
THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING DEPICTS STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A STRONG WIND
PROFILE WELL AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. TOTAL INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG
AS OF 01Z, BUT CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH
AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN
DESTABILIZATION AND STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. A FEW
CELLS MAY DEVELOP OVER FAR NORTHEAST OK AFTER 2 OR 3Z, EXPANDING
INTO MO OVERNIGHT. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES WILL
FAVOR HAIL. OTHER STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER EASTERN KS AFTER 06Z ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOIST PLUME, AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 03/23/2025
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