290   
ACUS11 KWNS 230327  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 230327   
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230530-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1027 PM CDT SAT MAR 22 2025  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...OZARK PLATEAU REGION  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE   
  
VALID 230327Z - 230530Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS ACROSS THE OZARK  
PLATEAU THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  
  
DISCUSSION...WEAK, LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING  
SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE,  
LLJ IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO. VAD  
PROFILE FROM INX/SGF BOTH EXHIBIT INTENSE 0-3 SRH AND LOW-LEVEL WARM  
ADVECTION WILL FOCUS ASCENT ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU OVER THE NEXT  
SEVERAL HOURS. WHILE MOISTURE IS ADVANCING NORTHEAST IN CONJUNCTION  
WITH THIS LLJ, 00Z SOUNDING FROM OUN DEPICTED ONLY 0.82 PW; HOWEVER,  
0-6KM LAPSE RATES ARE VERY STEEP AND THIS WILL AID BUOYANCY AS  
MOISTURE SURGES INTO SOUTHERN MO. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO,  
CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEEPEN ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ, AND THIS  
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WIND PROFILES FAVOR  
ORGANIZED ROTATING UPDRAFTS, AND A FEW SUPERCELLS MAY EMERGE.   
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 850MB WILL YIELD THE  
MOST MUCAPE, HENCE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE MOST  
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. IF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DEVELOPS, A SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE WARRANTED.  
  
..DARROW/GLEASON.. 03/23/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...  
  
LAT...LON   37059501 37479415 37229268 36589248 36439336 36609474  
            37059501   
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab SPC Page

Main Text Page