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FNUS21 KWNS 231625
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
VALID 231700Z - 241200Z
MINOR EXPANSIONS WERE MADE TO THE ELEVATED AREA INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
IN ADDITION, DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS AMID RECEPTIVE FUELS (ERCS 80%-90%).
OTHERWISE, THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SEE THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
..KARSTENS.. 03/23/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0207 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE WESTERN US TODAY AND
TONIGHT FORCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG JET WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING
A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT AS THEY MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES AND INTO
THE PLAINS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT,
SUPPORTING ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING, STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND IT.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS PRECEDING
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RH VALUES LOW (GENERALLY AROUND
30-35%) DESPITE COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS DRYING HAS ALSO
ENHANCED AREA FUELS WITH WIDESPREAD ERC'S ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SEVERAL HOURS OF
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY. LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, WHERE GUSTS MAY REACH 20-25 MPH.
HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG DURATION OR PERSIST OVER A
WIDE AREA. THIS SHOULD LIMIT MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONCERNS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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