873
ACUS03 KWNS 231902
SWODY3
SPC AC 231900
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE U.S. ON
TUESDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY, WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST. TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS COOLING ALOFT ALLOWS FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION AMID INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW.
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION
AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE WEAK,
LIMITING STORM COVERAGE, BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TX PANHANDLE, EASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND ARKLATEX REGION. DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CONDITIONAL RISK OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, LARGE-SCALE FORCING
WILL REMAIN WEAK AND SOME MIDLEVEL INHIBITION MAY PRECLUDE DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OVERNIGHT, A MODEST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
JET WILL DEVELOP BENEATH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. SOME RISK FOR
ISOLATED HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW, PRECLUDING SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 03/23/2025
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