623
FNUS22 KWNS 231913
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
A SMALL ELEVATED AREA WAS INTRODUCED THIS OUTLOOK CYCLE. THE LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE (MAINLY HREF/RAP) SHOWS AN UPTICK IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND/RH COMBOS SUPPORTING ELEVATED
FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK, AMID FUELS THAT
REMAIN HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO LARGE-FIRE SPREAD.
OTHERWISE, THE BALANCE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
..KARSTENS.. 03/23/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0208 AM CDT SUN MAR 23 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MONDAY AS RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WEST AND A BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL AID IN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS.
SOME LOCALIZED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS, BUT WIDESPREAD FIRE
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
..OK AND KS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING AS A SECOND WEAK SURFACE LOW
PASSES FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE SURFACE WINDS
ARE NOT EXACTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG (GENERALLY 10-15 MPH), THEY WILL
BRIEFLY OVERLAP WITH AREAS OF QUITE LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S F. WITH DIURNAL RH MINIMUMS BELOW 20%, A FEW HOURS OF
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR POSSIBLE WITHIN DRY
FUELS. AN ELEVATED AREA MAY BE CONSIDERED SHOULD WINDS TREND
STRONGER WITHIN THE DRY RETURN FLOW REGIME.
..APPALACHIANS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OVER PARTS OF VA,
EASTERN TN AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WESTERLY GUSTS MAY REACH 10-20
MPH AND BRIEFLY OVERLAP WITH RH BELOW 30%. GIVEN RECENT FIRE
ACTIVITY AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AREA FUELS, THIS MAY SUPPORT BRIEF
ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTIES ON WETTING
RAINFALL WITHIN FUELS AND THE OVERLAP OF POTENTIAL DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE AN ELEVATED AREA FOR NOW.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
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