452
ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST ON TUESDAY.
..FL PENINSULA
IN THE WAKE OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE PASSAGE ON D1,
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS NEBULOUS ACROSS THE REGION. STILL,
PRONOUNCED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COULD SUPPORT HAIL GROWTH AMID
MODERATE BUOYANCY. MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL
THREAT, BUT A FEW SLOW-MOVING CELLS WITH MOSTLY SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST FL.
..SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF A BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN STATES, THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOULD BE
CHARACTERIZED BY A WEAK SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TROUGH AND A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS NORTH TX TOWARDS THE
RED RIVER. AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
THUNDER IN NORTH-CENTRAL TX LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING TUESDAY
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF SLIGHTLY GREATER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, A MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM THETA-E ADVECTION REGIME NORTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED, MAINLY ELEVATED THUNDER
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
..SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER MIDWEST
A TRIO OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING THROUGH THE BROAD
NORTH-CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH MAY PROVIDE ADEQUATE
ASCENT FOR VERY ISOLATED THUNDER FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME, BUOYANCY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCANT AT MOST. DESTABILIZATION WILL LARGELY BE
DRIVEN BY PEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF EACH RESPECTIVE
IMPULSE. CONVECTION SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN LOW-TOPPED, BUT SPORADIC
FLASHES MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE SUSTAINED CORES. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
WITHIN WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS ARE POSSIBLE.
..WESTERN OR
BETWEEN A NORTHEAST PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH AND AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST, A MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF 700-MB WARM THETA-E ADVECTION SUPPORTING VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OR BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
..GRAMS.. 03/24/2025
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page