312
ACUS03 KWNS 241923
SWODY3
SPC AC 241922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
OR/WA/NORTHERN ID...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
..PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR EARLY-SEASON SEVERE
POTENTIAL. LARGELY MAINTAINED A BROAD LEVEL 1-MRGL RISK WITH OVERALL
SCENARIO SUPPORTING AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL. PARTS
OF THE REGION, FOCUSED WEST OF THE CASCADES AND OVER EASTERN
OR/SOUTHEAST WA, MAY WARRANT A LEVEL 2-SLGT RISK DELINEATION IN
LATER OUTLOOKS.
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JETLET,
NEAR 100 KTS AT 500 MB, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD OVERSPREAD AREAS
WEST OF THE CASCADES BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. NEAR-RECORD TO RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AMID A PRECEDING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
MID/UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING EAST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE A MERIDIONAL DEEP-LAYER
WIND PROFILE, THE PRONOUNCED STRENGTHENING OF FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WEST OF THE CASCADES AS MLCIN WANES
BY PEAK HEATING. FARTHER EAST, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE MORE DEEPLY
MIXED. AS SUCH, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER MOVING
NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OR/SOUTHEAST WA/NORTHERN ID
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG TO AT LEAST ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS MAY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS LATTER REGIME.
..GRAMS.. 03/24/2025
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