867
ACUS01 KWNS 241953
SWODY1
SPC AC 241951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT MON MAR 24 2025
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND SOUTHWESTERN TX.
..20Z UPDATE
THE CATEGORY 1/MARGINAL RISK WAS REMOVED, WITH THUNDER PROBABILITIES
CONSTRICTED TO PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. LATEST MRMS RADAR AND
NLDN LIGHTNING DATA SHOW DECREASING TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
ALONG THE GULF COAST, IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. FURTHERMORE, OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS
DECREASING BUOYANCY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, WITH THUNDER
PROBABILITIES PRESERVED ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHERE LIGHTNING
FLASHES ARE MOST LIKELY.
..SQUITIERI.. 03/24/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1108 AM CDT MON MAR 24 2025/
..GULF COAST
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF SOUTHERN
LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEAST LA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF NEAR-SHORE WATERS INTO THE FL PANHANDLE,
AND IS PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE
AREA OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS, A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN VICINITY
OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
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