118
ACUS01 KWNS 251557
SWODY1
SPC AC 251555
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1055 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
VALID 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX....
..SUMMARY
GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR HAIL, WILL ACCOMPANY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL TEXAS.
..FL
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE EASTERN US, WITH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES ACROSS SOUTH FL. AMPLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG HEATING WILL LEAD TO MODERATE CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA, WHERE SEA-BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK AND VEERED.
HOWEVER, SUFFICIENT FLOW AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY WIND
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..TX/OK
FULL SUNSHINE IS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF TX/OK, WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS ESTABLISHING AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR MASS. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON, A DIFFUSE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX WHERE A HANDFUL OF MORNING CAM
SOLUTIONS INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS
NOT HIGHLY CONFIDENT, ANY DRYLINE STORM WOULD POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL
AND GUSTY WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS.
OVERNIGHT, A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE WARM
ADVECTION AND LIFT ACROSS SOUTHERN OK. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 04Z, SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST
TX LATE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..HART/MOSIER.. 03/25/2025
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