453
ACUS11 KWNS 251755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251755
FLZ000-252030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0262
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251755Z - 252030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING (3-7PM).
DISCUSSION...WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM
OVER THE SHELF WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE EVERGLADES/KEYS MOVING EAST
OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE-SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
CUMULUS FIELD DESTABILIZING FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTHWARD,
WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW-MID 80S WITH 68-70 DEG F
DEWPOINTS. MODIFYING THE 12 UTC MIAMI RAOB FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS
YIELDS AROUND 1700 J/KG MLCAPE WITH MINIMAL CINH. ALTHOUGH FLOW IN
THE LOWEST 2 KM IS WEAK (BELOW 15 KT), WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING FROM
25 KT TO 40 KT IN THE 3-7 KM LAYER, IS RESULTING IN A WIND PROFILE
THAT WILL SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION---MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
MULTICELLS.
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE (12 UTC HREF AND RECENT
TIME-LAGGED HRRR RUNS) SHOW GREATER STORM COVERAGE BEGINNING IN THE
3-5PM PERIOD. AN INITIAL THREAT FOR A STRONGER STORM OVER THE
GREATER MIAMI AREA WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND AS STORMS DEVELOP
NORTH/NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY COOL 500-MB TEMPERATURES (-13 TO -12 DEG C)
WILL SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. STEEP
SURFACE-850 MB LAPSE RATES WITH THE MORE INTENSE WATER-LOADED CORES
WILL ALSO YIELD A RISK FOR DAMAGING GUSTS (55-70 MPH) WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES AND/OR STORMS MOVE
OFFSHORE.
..SMITH/HART.. 03/25/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 25308043 25408058 26688114 27478119 27708093 27868036
26747994 25448009 25308025 25308043
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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