718
ACUS03 KWNS 251922
SWODY3
SPC AC 251921
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL STATES...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO
THE TRANS-PECOS FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO EVENING, AND OVER THE LOWER
MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
..SOUTH TX TO THE TRANS-PECOS
NON-NAM GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TX AT 12Z THURSDAY, IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A LEADING LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
ONE ROUND OF SEVERE POTENTIAL ALONG THE LOWER TX COAST AND DEEP
SOUTH TX MAY OCCUR THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO MIDDAY BEFORE
CONVECTION WEAKENS/SHIFTS OFFSHORE. IN ITS WAKE, A PERIOD OF
STABILIZATION, MUCH MORE PROMINENT THAN INDICATED BY THE 12Z NAM,
APPEARS LIKELY. THIS MAY CONFINE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE TRANS-PECOS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO. BUT
WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM
LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES, RECOVERY MAY OCCUR BY EVENING TO YIELD
RENEWED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
..LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEYS
HIGHLY ELEVATED, WEAK CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z THURSDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF IA TO NORTHERN MO, DOWNSTREAM OF THE
NORTHWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. WITH ELEVATED BUOYANCY
GRADUALLY INCREASING, IT IS PLAUSIBLE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS MIGHT
DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CONVECTIVE PLUME ACROSS
THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE AFTERNOON. A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHEAST KS. RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR HERE, BECOMING
LIKELY DOWNSTREAM OF A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER ELEVATED BUOYANCY, ESPECIALLY WEST OWING
TO STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE UPSTREAM EML, SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SHEAR WITHIN
THE LOWER HALF OF THE ELEVATED PARCELS MAY BE MODEST AND THIS MAY
SUPPORT A PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE THAT LIMITS THE THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 03/25/2025
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