547
ACUS01 KWNS 260037
SWODY1
SPC AC 260036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2025
VALID 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WITH STORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS
MODEST NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. WHILE LATEST WATER-VAPOR
IMAGERY DOES NOT DEPICT ANY MEANINGFUL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN
THIS FLOW, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/MATURED ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TX (METROPLEX) INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL OK. STRONG DIURNAL
HEATING WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN THIS DEVELOPMENT AS TEMPERATURES WARMED
INTO THE MID 80S; HOWEVER, NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL NEGATE THE RISK
FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. LATEST THINKING IS LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR IN CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS SOME INCREASE IN THE LLJ IS EXPECTED INTO
THE RED RIVER REGION. A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY MATERIALIZE ACROSS SOUTHERN OK INTO
NORTHEAST TX AS THE BOUNDARY-LAYER DECOUPLES AND UPDRAFTS BECOME
ROOTED AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HAIL IS THE PRIMARY RISK,
AND THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE, THUS A MRGL RISK
APPEARS WARRANTED THE REST OF TONIGHT.
..DARROW.. 03/26/2025
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