441   
ACUS02 KWNS 260614  
SWODY2  
SPC AC 260613  
  
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0113 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025  
  
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z  
  
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHERN TEXAS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
  
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS, AS WELL AS OVER  
THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.  
   
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS  
  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE  
PERIOD, AS A SLOW-MOVING SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD  
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LOCAL RISK FOR  
HAIL/WIND MAY BE ONGOING WITH THESE STORMS.  
  
DURING THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP  
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.  DESPITE  
MODEST CAPE/SHEAR, THE DEEP/DRY BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT  
GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER STORM.  
  
FARTHER EAST, ALONG THE RIO GRANDE, STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER  
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE MEXICAN SIDE OF THE RIVER, AND MAY SHIFT INTO  
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF TEXAS WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE, REMNANT OUTFLOW  
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION MAY FOCUS NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT, AS MODERATE  
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DUE TO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDING  
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER  
SYSTEM.  LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES VEERING WITH HEIGHT, AND  
INCREASING TO 30-PLUS KT AT MID LEVELS, WILL SUPPORT  
ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS, THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF  
ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE POTENTIAL.  RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
EVENING, SPREADING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS WITH TIME.  
   
..MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA EASTWARD TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY  
  
AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND MIDWEST, SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP, AND SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE  
PREVAILING WEST-NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON  
SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS  
VICINITY, WHERE RISK FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR, ALONG  
WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL.  HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING  
THE PERIOD IS FORECAST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.  STEEP LAPSE RATES  
ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL STABLE AIR, AND AMPLY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW,  
SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER HAIL.  
  
..GOSS.. 03/26/2025  
  
  
 
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