824
FNUS21 KWNS 261613
FWDDY1
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VALID 261700Z - 271200Z
..APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO EMERGE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15 MPH AND RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 25-35% RANGE. A RECENT UPTICK IN FIRE ACTIVITY WITH ONGOING
FIRES ACROSS NORTHERN SC ALSO POINTS TO THE ONSET OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS ALIGNS WELL WITH MORNING GUIDANCE, WHICH DEPICTS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS CHESAPEAKE
BAY. THE ELEVATED RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
RECENT TREND.
..NEW MEXICO
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EVIDENT IN MID-MORNING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH. 12 UTC
SOUNDINGS ACROSS AZ/NM SAMPLED STEEP 8-9 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK BUOYANCY (50-100 J/KG MUCAPE) LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS GRADUAL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST TX/EASTERN NM
CONTINUES. THE DRY THUNDERSTORM RISK AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD
TO BETTER ALIGN WITH WHERE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN, BUT FUEL CONDITIONS
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY MOIST TO LIMIT THE OVERALL DRY-LIGHTNING THREAT.
..MOORE.. 03/26/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0206 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL US TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH
WILL SLIDE UNDER THE RIDGE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS
BENEATH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FAVORING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE EAST. SOME FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LIKELY AS ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERLAP WITH AREAS OF DRY
FUELS.
..APPALACHIANS
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES AND
DOWNSLOPE DRYING WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO LOW AFTERNOON RH BELOW
25-30% FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS, NORTHEAST GA AND WESTERN
VA. RH DROPPING TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, WITH WIND SPEEDS
APPROACHING 15 MPH (WITH STRONGER GUSTS) WILL FAVOR SEVERAL HOURS OF
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS GIVEN VERY DRY
FUELS AND RECENT FIRE ACTIVITY.
..SOUTHWEST
A SUBTLE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE UNDERNEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. MID AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WEST, REACHING PARTS OF NM AND WEST TX. WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ASCENT FROM THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WILL FAVOR POOR PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WITH WEAK
BUOYANCY ALOFT. THIS COULD SUPPORT A FEW DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS. FUELS ARE HIGHLY RECEPTIVE TO FIRE STARTS WITH ERCS
WELL ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE OVER A LARGE AREA. WITH LITTLE
WETTING RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING IGNITIONS, AN
ISOLATED DRY THUNDER AREA WILL BE MAINTAINED.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
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