951
FNUS22 KWNS 261847
FWDDY2
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
..KS/OK
AN ELEVATED RISK AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST OK AND PARTS OF THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. RECENT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 20-25 MPH WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DRIER SOLUTIONS THAT HAVE
CAPTURED RECENT MOISTURE RETURN AND RH TRENDS WELL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUGGEST 20-25% RH WILL BE COMMON BY MID-AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING, BUT A FEW
HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE ACROSS A
REGION WITH RECEPTIVE FUELS (AS EVIDENCED BY ONGOING FIRES ACROSS
NORTHERN OK AND CENTRAL OK).
..MID-ATLANTIC
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS IN THE 20-25% RANGE ARE
EXPECTED, BUT BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD LIMIT WIND
SPEEDS.
..GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WIDESPREAD GRADIENT WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL WY. DRY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NV WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH
RH REDUCTIONS INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, LATEST FUEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ERCS ARE LARGELY NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL VALUES FOR LATE
MARCH, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE POTENTIAL.
..NEW MEXICO
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING DRY-THUNDERSTORM
RISK AREA ACROSS NEW MEXICO BASED ON TRENDS IN RECENT CAM GUIDANCE.
SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
..MOORE.. 03/26/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 0207 AM CDT WED MAR 26 2025/
..SYNOPSIS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN US WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EASTWARD
AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG JET BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH A DRY AIR MASS AND
HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. OVER THE WEST, A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUPPORTING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
..SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH REMAINING RELATIVELY STATIONARY BENEATH
THE UPPER RIDGE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NM INTO WEST TX. LIKELY HIGH-BASED, STORMS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MORE ROBUST MOISTURE RETURN ARE
UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL. HOWEVER, STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT PWAT VALUES (0.5-0.8 IN) FOR WEAK
BUOYANCY MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN A REGION OF
DRY AND RECEPTIVE FUELS. DRY THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED ACROSS PARTS OF NM.
AHEAD OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS, A FEW HOURS
OF LOCALLY ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DRY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. WHILE RH APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA,
SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH AND AFTERNOON MINIMUMS NEAR 30% WILL
OVERLAP WITH AREAS OF VERY DRY FUELS. THIS MAY SUPPORT SOME
LOCALIZED FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.
..FL
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN A POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FL PENINSULA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES, INLAND RH
VALUES BELOW 35% APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF
THE PENINSULA. WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY
STRONG (GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH), OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS
OVERLAPPING WITH THE LOW RH AND VERY DRY FUELS COULD SUPPORT A FEW
HOURS OF LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS.
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page