637
ACUS11 KWNS 262044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262043
WAZ000-ORZ000-262245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0266
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WESTERN OR/WA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 262043Z - 262245Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL, ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ALL BE POSSIBLE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...SEASONABLY STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS UNDERWAY ACROSS
WESTERN OR INTO SOUTHWEST WA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO APPROACH OR EXCEED RECORD HIGHS IN SOME AREAS. THE 18Z
SOUNDINGS FROM MFR AND OTX DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE
850-600 MB LAYER, AND DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE WAS LACKING WITHIN THESE SOUNDINGS, BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE INTO PARTS OF
WESTERN OR/WA, WITH DEWPOINTS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO 50S F. CONTINUED
HEATING WILL SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH TIME TO
THE WEST OF THE CASCADES, WITH SBCAPE POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO
NEAR/ABOVE 1000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS AN INTENSE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF OR/WA MOVES
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, FURTHER STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED STORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP NEAR
THE COASTAL RANGES AND/OR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES, WITH
INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF STORMS AS
THEY SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.
FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH TIME. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS OR LARGER MAY
BECOME THE MOST PROMINENT HAZARD, GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS, MODERATE BUOYANCY, AND RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELL COULD ALSO POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT,
ESPECIALLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCALLY BACKED DUE TO TERRAIN
OR STORM-SCALE INFLUENCES. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST CELLS/CLUSTERS. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ONCE STORM INITIATION APPEARS IMMINENT.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 03/26/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PDT...MFR...SEW...PQR...
LAT...LON 43312382 46132352 47112314 47712237 47672153 47052134
45492128 44312153 43612192 43032276 43312382
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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