829
ACUS11 KWNS 270033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270033
WAZ000-ORZ000-270200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0267
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 PM CDT WED MAR 26 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WA AND OR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 65...
VALID 270033Z - 270200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 65
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN AND CLOSE TO WW65. SEVERE STORMS, INCLUDING
A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING GUSTS, HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 0030 UTC, REGIONAL RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATED A SLOW INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST. LIKELY DRIVEN BY THE LOCAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN SURFACE
HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF ASCENT FROM THE BROAD EAST PAC TROUGH,
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AROUND 1000 J/KG
OF MUCAPE AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FROM THE RTX VAD ARE
STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS, INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
LINEAR CLUSTERS. RADAR ECHO TOPS AND LIGHTNING TRENDS ACROSS PARTS
OF COWLITZ AND LEWIS COUNTIES DO SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY. THIS MATCHES WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS THAT SUGGEST A FEW
STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM NORTHERN OR, ACROSS THE COLUMBIA
RIVER VALLEY, AND NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN WA THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, HAIL AND A TORNADO
OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER ROTATING STORMS AND
ANY FAVORABLE TERRAIN INTERACTIONS. THUS, THE SEVERE RISK CONTINUES
ACROSS WW65.
..LYONS.. 03/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PDT...SEW...PQR...
LAT...LON 45132375 46802394 47702401 48092287 48162181 47892130
46032158 44382185 44332240 44262282 44522355 45132375
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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