717
ACUS01 KWNS 270531
SWODY1
SPC AC 270530
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VALID 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH TEXAS
WITH HAIL AND WIND AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
AND LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SOUTH TEXAS
COMPLEX, SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE LOWER VALLEY OF TX BY EARLY EVENING.
LLJ WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH TX AND MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DEEP
CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY1 PERIOD. ADEQUATELY BUOYANT,
AND MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS ROBUST UPDRAFTS, AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL/WIND APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
..LOWER MO/MID-MS VALLEYS
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN A BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT RISES. AS A RESULT,
MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY ORIENTATION WITH A FEW
WEAK DISTURBANCES EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL MAINTAIN A
NOTABLE, BUT VEERED, LLJ FROM WESTERN KS INTO EASTERN IA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL THUS BE
ORIENTED ACROSS THE UPPER RED RIVER REGION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.
THIS CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE BOUTS OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION, DRIVEN IN LARGE PART BY THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ. STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION AND THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL PROVE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SUPPORTIVE OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS
CAPABLE OF GENERATING HAIL AT TIMES. HOWEVER, OF POTENTIALLY MORE
CONCERN WILL BE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EASTERN-MOST PLUME OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, FROM
NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHWEST IA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INHIBITION WILL WEAKEN SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
TRY TO INITIATE BY 23-00Z. WIND PROFILES FAVOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS
AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NOTED DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE STRONGER
WARM ADVECTION CORRIDOR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH UPDRAFTS
WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE.
..DARROW/LYONS.. 03/27/2025
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