871
ACUS01 KWNS 271258
SWODY1
SPC AC 271256
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...AND SOUTH TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH TEXAS.
ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..SOUTH TEXAS
THE SLOW-MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL EJECT ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
TOWARD DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, SOUTH
OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS BY EARLY
EVENING. A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED. WHILE REGENERATIVE
CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW WILL LIMIT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF MORE
APPRECIABLE DESTABILIZATION, ADEQUATE BUOYANCY, A MODESTLY STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT, AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROBUST
UPDRAFTS AND STORM ORGANIZATION. HAIL/WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREATS, ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
..CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MISSOURI/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A FEW LINGERING STRONG STORMS,
CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH SEVERE-STORM POTENTIAL REMAINING LIMITED AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET/WARM ADVECTION ABATE THIS MORNING.
AS THE REGIONAL UPPER RIDGE TENDS TO FLATTEN LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION MAY BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE WARM
FRONT/WIND SHIFT INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS,
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA/NORTHWEST MISSOURI.
SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES FEATURING AROUND 35-40 KT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. A GREATER COVERAGE OF ELEVATED STORMS
WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET REESTABLISHES AND STORMS
EXPAND EASTWARD REGIONALLY. LARGE HAIL IS THE MOST PROBABLE HAZARD
IN BOTH REGIMES.
..GUYER/BENTLEY.. 03/27/2025
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