008
ACUS11 KWNS 271504
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271503
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-271700-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHERN MO AND FAR SOUTHERN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 271503Z - 271700Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO LATE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS MORNING FROM
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO INTO EASTERN KS, WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL
WARM-ADVECTION REGIME. WHILE THIS CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY BEEN
SUB-SEVERE, SOME INTENSIFICATION HAS RECENTLY BEEN NOTED NEAR/SOUTH
OF TOPEKA, IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LEADING EDGE OF VERY STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (AS NOTED ON THE 00Z DDC SOUNDING). WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET EXPECTED TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME, THE LONGEVITY
OF THE ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT SOME THREAT
FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY
CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING, GIVEN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, MUCAPE
OF 500-1000 J/KG, AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 03/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38999229 38839314 38539453 38009629 38119636 38749622
39329602 40509518 40899433 40539277 39979247 39399239
38999229
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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