367   
ACUS11 KWNS 271841  
SWOMCD  
SPC MCD 271841   
TXZ000-272115-  
  
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0270  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0141 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS / LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY  
  
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY   
  
VALID 271841Z - 272115Z  
  
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT  
  
SUMMARY...A COUPLE STRONG GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVENTUALLY OVER  
PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY.  
  
DISCUSSION...A LARGE, HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM  
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD, WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT  
UPSTREAM INTO MEXICO (SEE WPC MPD #0088). MIDDAY SOUNDINGS REVEAL  
DEEP, MOIST PROFILES WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND A HIGH LFC. WHILE THE  
18Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUBSTANTIAL 0-1  
SRH, THE COMBINATION OF POOR LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF ANY  
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY (OUTFLOW) THUS FAR SUGGESTS LITTLE BRIEF TORNADO  
RISK. IN ADDITION, OVERALL WIND POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW AS THE DEEP  
MOIST PROFILES MITIGATE DOWNDRAFT/EVAPORATION POTENTIAL.   
  
ALTHOUGH RADAR INDICATES LITTLE OUTFLOW AT THIS TIME, A FEW STRONG  
GUSTS MAY EVENTUALLY BE GENERATED AS HEATING PERSIST. FOR ANY  
BRIEF/QLCS TYPE TORNADO POTENTIAL, THIS APPEARS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL  
ON A SUBSTANTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FIRST MATERIALIZING.  
  
..JEWELL/SMITH.. 03/27/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
ATTN...WFO...BRO...  
  
LAT...LON   26089895 26349865 26589849 26679815 26889783 27099759  
            26929732 26389710 25989705 25829741 25879797 25959850  
            26089895   
  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH  
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH  
 
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