909
ACUS11 KWNS 272321
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272321
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-280115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0272
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA/NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 272321Z - 280115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION
WHICH MAY PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH 8-9 PM CDT. AN UPSCALE GROWING
CLUSTER ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
IS POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...EMBEDDED WITHIN 20-30 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER
MEAN FLOW, INITIALLY HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
UNDERGOING INTENSIFICATION AS IT ACQUIRES MORE MOIST AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE SOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW NEAR/NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF SALINA
KS. MID/UPPER 50S F SURFACE DEW POINTS, ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR INTO THE NEBRASKA STATE BORDER VICINITY OF
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS, APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO MIXED-LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE
CONTINUING PRESENCE OF MID-LEVEL INHIBITION, FORCING ALONG
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY MAINTAIN AND PERHAPS SUPPORT A FURTHER
INCREASE IN CONVECTION THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME. COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, AIDED BY AN INTENSIFYING
LOW-LEVEL JET (30-50 KT AROUND 850 MB), AN UPSCALE GROWING CLUSTER
WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MIGHT NOT
BE ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION INTO THIS EVENING.
..KERR/HART.. 03/27/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39589793 39969709 40009602 39569456 38699482 38629633
38609750 38859782 39589793
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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