478
ACUS01 KWNS 280033
SWODY1
SPC AC 280031
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2025
VALID 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS...AND OVER DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS.
..01Z UPDATE
EARLY-EVENING WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SHIFTING SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIDGE. THIS FEATURE APPEARS PARTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED
FROM NEAR GRB TO NORTHWEST OF MHK. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOTED ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PLUME OF STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHERE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES (MID 80S). WIND
FIELDS FAVOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS, AND LLJ IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATEST THINKING IS
THIS CLUSTER SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT DOWNSTREAM INTO NORTHEAST KS
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR HAIL, AND PERHAPS SOME WIND GUSTS.
OTHERWISE, MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS LIKELY AGAIN AFTER SUNSET
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LLJ INTO SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO. HAIL IS THE
PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE STORMS.
FARTHER SOUTH, AN EXPANSIVE MCS IS MIGRATING ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TX
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BASIN. TRAILING BAND OF STRONG STORMS
WILL SOON PROPAGATE ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND OFF THE
COAST. A SECONDARY WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ANOTHER
BOUT OF STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AS LLJ IS
MAINTAINED INTO THIS REGION; HOWEVER, EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING HAS DISRUPTED THE INSTABILITY FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION
AND THE PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE APPEARS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
..DARROW.. 03/28/2025
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