591
ACUS01 KWNS 280532
SWODY1
SPC AC 280530
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST
STATES...
..SUMMARY
A LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO AND WIND THREAT IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES. ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA
LATER THIS EVENING/NIGHT.
..WESTERN GULF COAST STATES
SOUTHERN-STREAM UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
MEXICO/FAR WEST TX. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS SOUTH TX INTO THE LOWER SABINE RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW TRANSLATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
BASIN. LOW-LATITUDE NATURE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD RESULT IN DEEPER
CONVERGENCE HOLDING OFFSHORE MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
TRUE GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ONGOING MCSS THAT ARE NOTED FROM THE LOWER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF BASIN. SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS OCCURRED INLAND AND AIR MASS RECOVERY
WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX COASTAL PLAIN. EVEN SO,
ADEQUATE BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST TX INTO
SOUTHERN LA SUCH THAT A FEW ROBUST STORMS COULD EMERGE WITHIN THE
LARGER COMPLEX OF CONVECTION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BRIEF
TORNADO OR WIND GUST WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS, AND THIS APPEARS TO
BE A LOW PROBABILITY THREAT.
..UPPER MIDWEST INTO NEBRASKA
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN A BIT TODAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.
LATEST WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS ONE NOTABLE SHORT WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN MT. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE EAST TODAY AND
SUSTAIN A BROAD SWATCH OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG A CORRIDOR
FROM MN INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. IN THE WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE,
SURFACE PRESSURES WILL BUILD OVER SK/MB INTO THE DAKOTAS AND FORCE A
COLD FRONT TO A POSITION FROM SOUTHWEST MN-CENTRAL NE BY 29/00Z.
WHILE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MULTIPLE BOUTS OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION, ANY SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE NOTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY AND 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BREACHED
BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE WIND SHIFT OVER NE AND HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS WITH THIS ISOLATED ACTIVITY.
..DARROW/WEINMAN.. 03/28/2025
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