304
ACUS11 KWNS 281547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281546
LAZ000-TXZ000-281745-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX AND WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281546Z - 281745Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH A THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL NORTHWARD MOVING CELLS/CLUSTERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS EAST TX LATE THIS MORNING, TO THE EAST OF A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTH TX. AREA VWPS DEPICT RATHER STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW,
WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IMPLIED WHERE SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN BACKED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. MLCAPE MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE
NEAR/ABOVE 500 J/KG INTO LATE MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
CONTINUED STORM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MODEST, EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 100-200 M2/S2 WILL SUPPORT OCCASIONAL STORM ORGANIZATION. GIVEN
THE RELATIVELY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH AND RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE, A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY SUSTAINED CELLS,
WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
CELLS/CLUSTERS.
WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE THREAT, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONGER DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND A LOCALLY GREATER
THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 03/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 28909546 30769526 32039493 32459449 32289335 31929335
31089320 30499319 30009323 29389344 29149377 28909546
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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