130
ACUS11 KWNS 281708
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281707
LAZ000-TXZ000-281830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0274
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1207 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 281707Z - 281830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL SUPERCELL HAS EVOLVED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NEWTON COUNTY, TX, WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT NOTED TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST OF HOUSTON. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 70S
F ACROSS WESTERN LA, AND SIMILAR WARMING WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX OUTSIDE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WARMING WILL ALLOW MLCAPE TO APPROACH 1000 J/KG.
MEANWHILE, LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER STRONG ON AREA VWPS, WITH
BACKED SURFACE WINDS SUPPORTING 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2. WITH
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION, THE FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH WILL SUPPORT
SOME INCREASE IN THE TORNADO THREAT INTO THE AFTERNOON, BOTH WITH
THE ONGOING SUPERCELL, AND WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
THAT MAY EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX. GIVEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES WITHIN A FOCUSED MESOSCALE
CORRIDOR, TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 03/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29739412 29959478 31329484 32049436 32289361 32179312
31799290 31129297 30189296 29879309 29799370 29739412
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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