513
ACUS11 KWNS 281903
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281902
TXZ000-282030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0275
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0202 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281902Z - 282030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO COULD
ACCOMPANY STORMS NEAR THE MIDDLE/UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A SMALL STORM CLUSTER HAS EVOLVED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR THE MIDDLE TX COAST, IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH TX. MODEST DIURNAL HEATING HAS ALLOWED MLCAPE TO RISE
NEAR 1000 J/KG DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CLUSTER, WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
DEEP CONVECTION ALSO NOTED CLOSER TO GALVESTON BAY.
WHILE FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3 KM HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING (AS NOTED ON THE KHGX VWP), MODESTLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE ONGOING STORM
CLUSTER EARLIER PRODUCED A 55 MPH GUST, AND STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THIS
CLUSTER MOVES OFFSHORE, AND A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
..DEAN/SMITH.. 03/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...HGX...
LAT...LON 29459599 29919504 29899457 29829437 29459443 29219450
29099470 28809530 28519578 28409606 28379634 28539630
29459599
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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