773
ACUS11 KWNS 282027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282027
LAZ000-TXZ000-ARZ000-282200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0276
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST TX/WESTERN LA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 66...
VALID 282027Z - 282200Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 66 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SOME THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...ONE SMALL BUT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT, WITH OTHER TRANSIENT
SUPERCELLS NOTED FROM EAST TX INTO FAR WESTERN LA OVER THE LAST 1-2
HOURS. WHILE MOST OF THESE CELLS HAVE APPARENTLY REMAINED SUB-SEVERE
THUS FAR, THE KSHV/KPOE/KLCH VWPS CONTINUE TO DEPICT RATHER STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MODESTLY FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR/SRH FOR
AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO/WIND THREAT. HOWEVER, GENERALLY
WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ONLY RELATIVELY MODEST DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR COULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION TO SOME EXTENT. A
TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR LOCALIZED DAMAGING GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE ONGOING STORM CLUSTER NEAR THE SABINE RIVER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, AND SOME THREAT COULD EXTEND JUST NORTH
OF WW 66.
FARTHER SOUTHWEST, SOME INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN NOTED ON
THE KHGX VWP, AND DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE IMMEDIATELY
IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING EAST-CENTRAL
TX. A MODEST INCREASE IN STORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS THIS AREA COULD
RESULT IN A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
IN AND NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF WW 66 THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON.
..DEAN.. 03/28/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 29959320 29679352 29429455 28799549 29409535 29619534
29869552 30419509 31179471 31919466 32489445 33049429
32949334 32479323 32049313 31539302 30999292 30509303
29959320
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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