100
ACUS11 KWNS 290026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290025
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-290230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0279
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0725 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...FAR NORTHWEST...IOWA...AND FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 290025Z - 290230Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AROUND 60 MPH) AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL (AROUND 1 INCH) ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVOLVING ALONG A
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN MN
INTO FAR NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHEAST NE. EARLIER DIURNAL HEATING
BENEATH AN EML PLUME HAS RESULTED IN STEEP DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES
AND AROUND 1000 J/KG MLCAPE ALONG THE FRONT. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL, 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ORIENTED PARALLEL/OBLIQUE TO
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SUPPORT SMALL, LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS (AROUND 60 MPH)
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (AROUND 1 INCH) FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
GIVEN THE FLOW ORIENTATION TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT,
THERE MAY BE A TENDENCY FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE, BEFORE BEING
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. THEREFORE, ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FAIRLY BRIEF (THROUGH AROUND 02-03Z).
..WEINMAN/MOSIER.. 03/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...
LAT...LON 42769743 43589589 44159453 44619270 44539214 44099222
43649401 43249506 42339688 42489738 42769743
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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