003
ACUS11 KWNS 290058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290058
MIZ000-290600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0280
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 290058Z - 290600Z
SUMMARY...FREEZING RAIN (AND POSSIBLY SOME SLEET) WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HEAVY FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND
0.1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.
DISCUSSION...A SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IS
ONGOING/SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN -- WELL NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL WI. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE VICINITY OF A COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET
STRUCTURE. BENEATH THE WARM-ADVECTION PLUME, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER 30S F, AND CONTINUED SURFACE-LAYER COLD ADVECTION,
COMBINED WITH NOCTURNAL AND WET-BULB COOLING, WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
COUPLE DEGREES OF COOLING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN DEEPLY
SATURATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES, THIS WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION OF FREEZING RAIN, WITH RATES AROUND 0.1 INCH PER
HOUR POSSIBLE. THESE HEAVIER RATES SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
06Z, BEFORE THE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHIFTS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
REGION.
..WEINMAN.. 03/29/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
LAT...LON 47118890 47508830 47518768 47178680 46778481 46428390
46068333 45758352 45668406 45888657 46188799 46368870
46708896 47118890
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