566
ACUS03 KWNS 290731
SWODY3
SPC AC 290730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...
..SUMMARY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MONDAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWAD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.
...PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG/AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD/MONDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY SOME
OF THE EARLY-PERIOD CONVECTION. AS THE FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, SOME DESTABILIZATION IS
EXPECTED -- MODEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, BUT MORE SUBSTANTIAL WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT, FROM ROUGHLY VIRGINIA SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK, THE PRIMARY RISK IN THE
VERY MODEST CAPE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
FARTHER SOUTH, AN ALL-HAZARDS RISK IS ANTICIPATED, INCLUDING HAIL
AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES. AS IS THE CASE FOR SUNDAY, FARTHER
WEST, THE NAM REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO LAPSE RATES/CAPE,
AND WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN SLGT RISK POTENTIAL FROM
ROUGHLY THE CAROLINAS SOUTHWESTWARD TO GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRE-FRONTAL CLOUDS/CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY PRECLUDES INCLUSION OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES AT
THIS TIME.
BY EVENING, STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SHOULD WEAKEN,
ALONG WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE POTENTIAL IN PART DUE TO A COOLER
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER, RISK WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING FARTHER SOUTH, UNTIL STORMS CLEAR THE MIDDLE AND
SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COASTS OVERNIGHT.
..GOSS.. 03/29/2025
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