108
ACUS02 KWNS 301731
SWODY2
SPC AC 301730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...SOUTHEAST...AND CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA...
..SUMMARY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH A THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES -- ARE FORECAST
MONDAY FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION.
..SYNOPSIS
THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE INFLUENCED BY
EXTENSIVE ANTECEDENT AND ONGOING CONVECTION, BUT IN GENERAL, ONE
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, WHILE A
LOWER-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE
MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINAS/MID ATLANTIC. A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH THE DAY, AS A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND
INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
..SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
ON D1/SUNDAY, LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT AN ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTER WILL ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF LA/MS/AL,
POTENTIALLY AIDED BY THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, MODERATE DOWNSTREAM
BUOYANCY, AND 30-50 KT IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
GA/SC THROUGH THE DAY, ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SOME TORNADO THREAT AS WELL, BOTH WITH QLCS CIRCULATIONS AND
ALSO WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT,
ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WOULD ALSO POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED HAIL.
THE ANTICIPATED STORM CLUSTER WILL TEND TO OUTPACE THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WAKE OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ANY SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IN THIS REGION.
FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF NC/VA, RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING OF A
MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL RESULT IN MODERATE BUOYANCY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED CELLS/CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WIND. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASE IN
LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR AND MOISTURE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH
COULD INCREASE THE TORNADO THREAT, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF STORM
INITIATION AND MATURATION.
..PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ENHANCED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE ACROSS QUEBEC, AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING, BEFORE THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE.
..DEAN.. 03/30/2025
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