814
ACUS01 KWNS 310053
SWODY1
SPC AC 310051
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VALID 310100Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
OH...KY...TN...SERN AR...PARTS OF ERN TX....NRN AND CNTRL LA....MUCH
OF MS...NRN AL...WRN WV....SWRN PA...
..SUMMARY
AN ONGOING SQUALL LINE SPREADING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MAY CONTINUE
TO POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES, BEFORE WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY AND
CUMBERLAND PLATEAUS. INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING,
WHICH WILL PROBABLY POSE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WHILE SPREADING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK.
..01Z UPDATE
AS A NOTABLE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACCELERATES NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY, INTO A BROADLY CONFLUENT REGIME BETWEEN A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO AND LARGE-SCALE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGING SHIFTING EAST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY/NORTHEAST, IT APPEARS THAT ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY
FINALLY SUPPORT SUBSTANTIVE DEEPENING OF A SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
BENEATH A RESIDUAL PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACROSS AND
NORTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE VICINITY, THE ONGOING
PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL GRADUALLY CUT-OFF LOW-LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE RETURN.
..LOWER TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS INTO LOWER GREAT LAKES
THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE NEAR THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VICINITY IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED, 40-50 KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, BEFORE
MORE STABLE STORM INFLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST
MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, AIDED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGGING SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY, AS MID-LEVEL
INHIBITION ERODES, A RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH APPEARS POSSIBLE. THIS MAY INITIALLY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE
HAIL, BEFORE AT LEAST MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR CONTRIBUTES TO THE
EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO ORGANIZING CLUSTERS ACCOMPANIED BY
INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG GUSTS OVERNIGHT.
..KERR.. 03/31/2025
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