961   
FNUS22 KWNS 310700  
FWDDY2  
  
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK    
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0159 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025  
  
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z  
  
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH  
PLAINS...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
  
WITHIN THE BASE OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE  
WEST, AN 80-90-KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL  
OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. IN  
RESPONSE, A SURFACE CYCLONE WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 986 MB OVER THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHILE A SOUTHWARD-EXTENDING DRYLINE SHARPENS  
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.   
  
...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND SOUTHEAST  
ARIZONA...  
WEST OF THE DRYLINE, DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH INCREASING HIGH-LEVEL  
CLOUDS, COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG DOWNSLOPE WARMING/DRYING, WILL  
YIELD 10-15 PERCENT RH AND AN AXIS OF MIDDLE/UPPER 80S F  
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, A  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING INTO THE  
STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 25-35 MPH SUSTAINED  
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS (WITH HIGHER GUSTS). THESE FACTORS  
WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGH-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES.   
  
WHILE MUCH OF NM, SOUTHEAST CO, SOUTHWEST KS, AND THE  
NORTHERN/WESTERN TX/OK PANHANDLES WILL EXPERIENCE EXTREMELY CRITICAL  
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS (30+ MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND LOWER  
TEENS RH), CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MINIMAL FUEL LOADING AND/OR  
MARGINAL FUEL DRYNESS ACROSS MANY OF THESE AREAS LIMIT THE NEED FOR  
SUCH HIGHLIGHTS. THE ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN  
PORTION OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES, THOUGH THIS AREA APPEARS TOO  
LOCALIZED FOR AN UPGRADE AT THIS TIME.  
  
..WEINMAN.. 03/31/2025  
   
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT  
  
  
 
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