760
ACUS48 KWNS 050849
SWOD48
SPC AC 050848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
..DISCUSSION
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
STATES ON TUESDAY, AS A DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN U.S. FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS
FORECAST MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL STATES INTO THE EASTERN
U.S., BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IN THE LOWER MISSOURI
AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
THURSDAY, AND TO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. ONE OF THESE DAYS COULD BE
A POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY, BUT PREDICTABILITY
REMAINS LOW CONCERNING TROUGH TIMING, MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND
CONVECTIVE MODE. IN THE GREAT PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. AT MID-LEVELS, A RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE RIDGE
SHOULD BE MARGINALIZED DUE TO A LACK OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.
..BROYLES.. 04/05/2025
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