209
ACUS11 KWNS 050924
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050923
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-051130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0408
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0423 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL OK INTO NWRN AR AND SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 050923Z - 051130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
SURFACE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO INTO THE 6-7
AM CDT TIME FRAME, BEFORE PROBABLY DIMINISHING.
DISCUSSION...WARMER ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR, ATOP THE POTENTIALLY
BUOYANT ELEVATED MOIST LAYER, APPEARS TO RESPONSIBLE FOR SUPPRESSING
ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE
MORE INTENSE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED FOCUSED IN A SHORT ARCING BAND
TO THE NORTH, ROUGHLY WITHIN THE THERMAL GRADIENT AROUND 700 MB, ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER. THIS HAS BEEN
ACCOMPANIED BY SUSTAINED SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, AND IT
APPEARS THAT THIS COULD PERSIST AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS GENERATED AN
APPRECIABLE SURFACE PRESSURE PERTURBATION, BASED ON RECENT ASOS
OBSERVATIONS FROM PAULS VALLEY, WHERE A 6-7 MB 2 HOURLY SURFACE
PRESSURE FALL WAS NOTED. THIS HAS ACCELERATED ALREADY STRONG
NORTHERLY NEAR SURFACE WIND FIELDS, WITH SEVERAL GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
SEVERE LIMITS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA DURING
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
AS CONVECTION FILLS IN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA, IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH LONGER THIS WILL CONTINUE, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD
PERSIST INTO THE 11-12Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR/MOSIER.. 04/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 35629677 36339537 36569405 35059351 33949603 35059589
35629677
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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