475
ACUS11 KWNS 051506
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051506
LAZ000-TXZ000-051730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051506Z - 051730Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...A MOIST, UNCAPPED AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOUISIANA AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING SOUTH OF THE FRONT, BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO THIN THROUGH THE MORNING WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED BY MID-DAY. AS THIS OCCURS, MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT IN EAST TEXAS.
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND THIS STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS
INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES. DESPITE THE UNCAPPED WARM-SECTOR, EXPECT
OPEN WARM SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT TO BE MINIMAL GIVEN THE WARM
800-650MB TEMPERATURES SAMPLED BY THE SHV AND LCH 12Z RAOBS WITH
PRIMARY STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT WHERE FORCING IS
MAXIMIZED. DEEP LAYER FLOW PARALLEL TO THIS FRONT MAY RESULT IN A
MESSY STORM MODE, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL, SEVERE WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES
(SOME WHICH COULD BE STRONG).
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 04/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...
LAT...LON 30729564 31209503 31249439 31209341 30919270 30459265
29829277 29649292 29679322 29709350 29659383 29429460
29109499 28879527 28439616 28669648 29129660 29599637
30309595 30729564
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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