346
ACUS11 KWNS 051636
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051636
TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-051830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL ARKANSAS TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND FAR
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 122...
VALID 051636Z - 051830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 122 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FOCUSED SEVERE WIND THREAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TOWARD WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 80 MPH.
DISCUSSION...A BOWING LINE SEGMENT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE/COMPOSITE OUTFLOW IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A RECENT MEASURED
WIND GUST OF 58 KNOTS AT KORK AT 1615 UTC. IN ADDITION, A WELL
ORGANIZED REAR-INFLOW JET IS BEING SAMPLED BY THE KLZK WSR-88D. THE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION TO 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE EXPECTED BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS BOW TO TRAVERSE ALONG THIS FRONTAL/OUTFLOW
ZONE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CURRENT
RADAR/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WHICH SUPPORT THIS CORRIDOR OF A HIGHER
WIND THREAT, THE 15Z WOFS ALSO HIGHLIGHTS THIS CORRIDOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 90TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS AROUND 65 KNOTS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WIND THREAT (WHICH WILL EXIST ON BOTH
SIDES OF THE BOUNDARY), A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST SOUTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY, ALTHOUGH LINE ORIENTATION MAY NOT BE AS FAVORABLE
BASED ON CURRENT WSR-88D DEPICTION FROM KLZK. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
VORTICITY WILL BE ENHANCED.
..BENTLEY.. 04/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...
LAT...LON 34329196 34479226 34759231 34909237 35399073 35558990
35408958 35238953 35058963 34888987 34619058 34329196
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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