073
ACUS11 KWNS 051804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051803
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-051930-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN
KENTUCKY AND FAR NORTHERN TENNESSEE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051803Z - 051930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY.
DISCUSSION...A WELL-ESTABLISHED BOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS WITH MULTIPLE MEASURED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MPH.
THIS BOW IS MOSTLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT THE
COLD AIR IS SHALLOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME DOWNDRAFTS AND CONTINUED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS. WHILE THIS BOW LIKELY WILL UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES INTO INCREASINGLY DEEP COLD AIR NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
THERE IS A RESERVOIR OF BETTER INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
FORECAST NORTH OF THE TN/KY BORDER (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS) AND WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUDCOVER, IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR SURFACE BASED
DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER, IF EVEN WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN
DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH, STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
TORNADO THREAT.
IN ADDITION, A BAND OF STORMS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS
WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES APPARENT. THESE
STORMS COULD MOVE NORTH OF WATCH 122 WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS TO COVER
THE THREAT FROM THE BOW AND THIS PRE-SQUALL LINE CONVECTION.
..BENTLEY/GUYER.. 04/05/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...
LAT...LON 36228945 36409016 36449022 36789000 37208942 37648805
37968661 37378592 36678630 36368766 36228945
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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