471
ACUS11 KWNS 060115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060115
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-060245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0419
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0815 PM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST MS...NORTHERN AL...SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 124...125...
VALID 060115Z - 060245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 124, 125 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE
EVENING. NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 9 PM CDT.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS IS ONGOING ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST MS THIS EVENING, WITH MULTIPLE SPOTTER AND
RADAR-CONFIRMED TORNADOES OVER THE LAST 60-90 MINUTES. A TRAILING
STORM CLUSTER INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MS HAS ALSO SHOWN SIGNS OF
INCREASING ORGANIZATIONS. THE ENVIRONMENT FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MS INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST AL AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS, WITH FAVORABLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS, RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE, MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY, AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
FLOW/SHEAR (AS NOTED ON THE KGWX VWP). THIS ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A THREAT OF STRONG TORNADOES, AS WELL AS LOCALIZED LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANY FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH COULD
RESULT IN POTENTIAL FOR LARGER-SCALE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS AS
STORMS MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.
DOWNSTREAM INTO A LARGER PORTION OF NORTHERN AL AND SOUTHERN MIDDLE
TN, LOWER DEWPOINTS (DROPPING TO THE LOWER 60S F) AND WEAKER
BUOYANCY ARE NOTED IN CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSES. HOWEVER,
THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT, AND
SOME MOISTURE RECOVERY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT OF ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS WELL PAST THE SCHEDULED 9 PM CDT EXPIRATION TIME OF WW 124.
AS A RESULT, NEW WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED SOON, WHICH MAY EXTEND
INTO DOWNSTREAM AREAS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AL AND
SOUTHERN/EASTERN TN.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 33868898 33858951 34078963 34358931 35278791 35468737
35488609 35408541 35108544 34628619 34208760 33938872
33868898
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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