918
ACUS11 KWNS 060446
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060445
TNZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-060615-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0421
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT SAT APR 05 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN LA...MS...NORTHWEST AL...MIDDLE/EASTERN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 125...128...129...
VALID 060445Z - 060615Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 125, 128, 129 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A DAMAGING-WIND AND TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCAL WATCH EXTENSION AND/OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL CLUSTERS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING
NEAR THE AL/TN BORDER AND INTO MIDDLE TN, WHILE AN INCREASINGLY
EXTENSIVE QLCS ACROSS PARTS OF MS/LA HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
ACCELERATING EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.
THE NORTHERN CLUSTERS MAY EVENTUALLY REACH PARTS OF EASTERN TN
OVERNIGHT. WHILE BUOYANCY AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD EXTENT, SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THESE CLUSTERS, DUE TO THEIR CURRENT ORGANIZED STATE, A
PERSISTENTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET, AND FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.
SOME TORNADO THREAT COULD PERSIST, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS
THAT CONTINUE TO TRACK NEAR A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
FARTHER SOUTH, THE DAMAGING-WIND AND TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE
WITH THE ORGANIZING QLCS ACROSS MS AND EASTERN LA. THE 04Z JAN
SOUNDING DEPICTED NOTABLE MIDLEVEL COOLING AND A MODEST
STRENGTHENING OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE BUOYANCY PROFILE COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE EVENING. THIS
SOUNDING AND AREA VWPS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS, AND ANY EMBEDDED CELLS AND/OR
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES
OVERNIGHT, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TORNADO.
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD EAST OF ONGOING WATCHES.
LOCAL WATCH EXTENSIONS AND/OR NEW WATCH ISSUANCE MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED DURING THE EARLY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE QLCS IS ABLE TO MATURE FROM EASTERN MS INTO WESTERN AL.
..DEAN/HART.. 04/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LIX...
LCH...
LAT...LON 31529171 33588997 34918817 35648689 36268591 36558520
36218469 35778434 35258507 34598625 33488781 32518864
32018899 31388955 30759001 30689058 30739109 30829185
31039198 31529171
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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