212
ACUS11 KWNS 060828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060827
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-061030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0327 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN MS INTO CNTRL AL
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 129...131...
VALID 060827Z - 061030Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 129, 131 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE OF PRE-FRONTAL STORMS,
AND PERHAPS ADDITIONAL MORE DISCRETE STORMS NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF
THE LINE, WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR BRIEF TORNADOES AND/OR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WHILE SLOWLY SPREADING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH 6-7 AM CDT.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS LARGELY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG
A SLOW MOVING TO STALLING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, NOW NEAR OR SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM CHATTANOOGA TN THROUGH HUNTSVILLE AL AND COLUMBUS MS,
WHERE IT INTERSECTS OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT NEAR AND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON MS. NEAR/EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY,
INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO
SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT; HOWEVER ONE CELL, EMERGING
FROM PRE-FRONTAL BANDS OF WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE ALABAMA BORDER VICINITY, DID RECENTLY
INTENSIFY TO THE WEST OF MERIDIAN (AND PROBABLY PRODUCE A TORNADO)
PRIOR TO BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO THE CONVECTIVE LINE.
THE LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING AND POSITIVELY-TILTED UPSTREAM
TROUGHING ARE VERY SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD, AND IT APPEARS THAT
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DO LIKEWISE. ALTHOUGH THE RAPID
REFRESH SUGGESTS THAT A STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET CORE IS IN THE
PROCESS OF SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 40+ KT TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THIS IS
MAINTAINING SIZABLE CLOCKWISE-CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS NEAR WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGHING, WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SEASONABLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR (INCLUDING SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR 70)
APPEARS TO BE SUPPORTING MODERATELY LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000 J/KG.
..KERR.. 04/06/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31069046 31648998 32698920 33088868 33338779 33668703
33918634 33108633 32358731 31398882 30779003 31069046
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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