757
ACUS48 KWNS 060853
SWOD48
SPC AC 060852
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT SUN APR 06 2025
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
..DISCUSSION
..WEDNESDAY/DAY 4 TO FRIDAY/DAY 6
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
STATES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES
SOUTHEASTWARD, ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ON THURSDAY, AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP IN PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND
ARK-LA-TEX. BY FRIDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE
SOUTHEAST, WHERE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. ANY SEVERE THREAT THAT DEVELOPS FROM
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL, MAINLY DUE TO ISSUES
WITH POOR MOISTURE RETURN AND RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY.
..SATURDAY/DAY 7 AND SUNDAY/DAY 8
ON SATURDAY, A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ANY THREAT THAT DEVELOPS VERY
ISOLATED.
ON SUNDAY, MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A LONG FETCH OF
WEST-NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THE
U.S. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM WITHIN A SOMEWHAT
MOIST AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. THIS,
COMBINED WITH UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS EXTENDED RANGE, SUGGEST THAT
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
..BROYLES.. 04/06/2025
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